Most of the Golden Rules of Sports Handicapping have been more frequent this season.  Jumping to the top of that list includes:

Totals handicapping is much more about pace in basketball (and football) than offensive or defensive efficiency

I’ve seen many articles from would-be experts pointing out that NBA shooting percentages are down. This is true. What the aspiring experts are oblivious to is that it is much more a result of slowed pace than the “tired legs” they assume.

NBA condensed schedule has been kind to bettors

When a team plays a frenetic pace such as what Mike D’Antonio prefers, they will not only get a lot of easy baskets, but also give up many. A more disciplined and efficient approach, like that preferred by Greg Popovich, means fewer easy baskets on both ends of the court.

Teams are rationing their energy more so than being tired. What is the handicapping significance and difference between the two? Teams have had more of a tendency to limit fast breaks at the front end of a cluster of games even more than at the tail end.

Uncertainty is higher, which is great for the sharp player

OffshoreInsiders.com says the window in which a handicapper can place his bets is much larger than the period in which the oddsmaker has to post lines. With teams playing more back-to-back nights, sometimes three straight nights, there is more uncertainty for the oddsmakers, who are in too much of a hurry to post lines to get the competitive edge.

As a pro handicapper, this means even more opportunity than ever, preying on what linesmakers overlook while harnessing enlightenment that comes out after a line is posted.  Nagging injuries are a gift to the pro gambler more than ever.

Another of our Golden Rules is that no edge is too small. They all add up. Knowing which key players will be at less than 100 percent is a gift horse that has been much more commonplace this season.

When there were two and three days between games, that levels the playing field more for the oddsmaker. Less intel sneaks under the radar. In the truncated schedule, the upper hand swings to the sharp even more than ever.

Just like in other forms of investment, being ahead of the curve, not behind it is the key to beating the markets. The unique dynamics of the concentrated schedule is an endowment to the proactive unlike to which NBA bettors have previously been benefactors of.

Reasoning: I know that Manu Ginobili is injured once again and Tiago Splitter may miss this game as well. I also respect how the Jazz in Utah are always tough to beat at home whether they have Stockton and Malone doing their thing or this current version with guys like Jefferson, Millsap and Harris. So I’m definitely not expecting the red-hot Spurs to just go into Salt Lake City and win going away or anything but let’s give credit where credit is due and that goes to Greg Popovich and his blistering team.

Don't take a doughnut on tonight's card. Bet on Duncan

Nobody truly figured San Antonio for a contender this season, as most experts believed the window had pretty much closed. Well they may not win the championship when all is said and done but the way these guys have been playing the Spurs certainly need to be reintroduced into the conversation.

Tony Parker has been playing better than ever and Tim Duncan is an experienced veteran who still has some game left. Throw in the Gary Neal’s and Matt Bonner’s of the world and it’s not really all that big of a fluke that these guys have now won 10 straight games and are opening up a little distance with the Mavericks in the division. Plus Pop’s boys have also covered 9 of their last 10 with a push and are not the team on the back-to-back today as they were off last night unlike Utah who tangled in Houston Sunday evening with the Rockets.

The Spurs are on-fire, have a great point guard at the moment and are the fresher team on the floor tonight. That’s good enough for me and I’ll therefore lay a few and take my chances.

Top expert pick on this game: San Antonio

For more information: The 400,000* on Iowa yesterday not only covered the 4 ½ but won outright by a billion plus! It’s now 15 of 23 winning days, a 22-13-1 overall run in which my teams have covered by an amazing 89 ½ points (yes, that includes the losses) and the profit is a whopping 2.9 million stars to the good. if you don’t think I’m getting over that 3 million mark today than you’re crazy.

Just another fire hot lock here and now and I once again implore you not to sleep on it. One play, one winner, a 300,000* burial against the number involving Baylor and Texas. I’m winning again, are you? Click now to purchase

Reasoning: Jeremy Lin finally lost a game as a starter as New York was shocked at home by the lowly New Orleans Hornets. Now the champion Mavericks come to town after the unreal comeback victory against the 76ers. The question is whether Mike D’Antoni’s boys can rev things up again or did they reach a high water mark in that seventh straight victory.

Look for the Jeremy Lin magic to continue to wear off

My answer is the latter and that’s not being a Knicks hater at all as I actually have been and still am a fan of the New Yorkers. I really do like Lin and think that he will be able to co-exist with Stoudemire and ‘Melo but the Mavs, even if not great right now, are still a veteran team that is the defending champion. Dirk Nowitzki is a superstar and superstars generally raise their game at the world’s most famous arena of Madison Square Garden. Also Jason Terry is expected to be back after missing that last game in Philadelphia where his Mavs came back brilliantly down a ton against a pretty good 76ers squad.

Things have improved for the home Knicks but they are far from being an elite team just yet, even with Lin in the mix, and in the end I’ll back the champs and take my chances.

Top expert pick on this game: Dallas

For more information: The 500,000* Wolverines not only took care of business in an on the court victory as I said but they did it in literally wire-to-wire fashion never being even tied the entire 40 minutes. That’s what I would call a pretty solid 500,000* call!

It’s now 14 of 22 winning days, a 21-13-1 overall run in which my teams have covered by an amazing 73 points (yes, that includes the losses) and the profit is a whopping 2.5 million stars to the good. One play today and it’s my second highest rated, a 400,000* in another Big 10 game. Indiana-Iowa, I’m winning today! Are you? Click now to purchase

Reasoning: The Red Storm certainly can put up a stinker or two as we have seen at times this season but that can happen on the road with an extremely young team. I don’t mind this team though in today’s home spot as UCLA may be improved of late but across the country like this is in no way, shape or form a spot for them to succeed in. Lazeric Jones and Travis Wear and today’s visitor’s are ok and if this game was on the west coast would have the chance to beat St. John’s by a bunch but I just don’t see it here. The road isn’t ever easy to begin with and then when you are a mediocre team, which the Bruins are even with the improvement, going west to east could make any team shrivel up.

UCLA is among a pair to lay against

Moe Harkless is a legitimate player and a guy who is going to have a really bright college future and possibly a home on an NBA roster someday. The Johnie’s are young and immature and can wet the bed with the best of them as they did in that last game at Seton Hall. They have also lost four in a row and eight of their last 10 but the competition in the Big East is far superior to the Pac-12, even if the Big East is a bit down, and to get around a handful at home with St. John’s is too much in a very very winnable game.

I don’t love the Storm but I also don’t trust the Bruins and therefore this home dog is a quality play in the end.

Top expert pick on this game: St. Johns from Matt Rivers

Also the Captain, Vic Duke has a winner as well. Marquette (+3) for 2 Units **

Marquette/U Conn 12:00: Not going to give the green light to U Conn yet after drubbing Big East lightweight DePaul. U Conn has defensive flaws that Marquette can exploit; moreover, the Huskies’ offense has not shown a consistent rhythm virtually all season.

The Golden Eagles also had an additional 4 days of prep for this game. Marquette has shown good poise on the road at 5-1 ATS and their offense frustrates a number of defenses. U Conn has been vulnerable defending the perimeter (allow 35%) and Johnson-Odom and company can score from a multitude of spots on the floor. Offensively, U Conn will try to use their size to the advantage but Marquette is feisty and quick. Look for turnovers to help fuel the Golden Eagles’ offense.

The road team in this series is 4-0 ATS and Marquette has covered in their last two visits to U Conn. The Golden Eagles are a sweet 38-16-1 ATS on the road against a team with a winning % above .600. U Conn, however, sports money burning 1-5 ATS mark against a team with a winning % above .600. Marquette is the call.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Matt Rivers. That’s right, it’s the first 500,000* I have released in quite some time and for good reason. I have isolated a solid nighttime underdog that will win their game outright, as in outright! There are a billion games on the board today but only one bomb dropper and a 200,000* bonus play involving Marquette and UCONN.

It’s now 13 of 22 winning days, a 20-12-1 overall run in which my teams have covered by an amazing 80 points (yes, that includes the losses) and the profit is a whopping 2.65 million stars to the good. I’m winning today! Are you? Click now to purchase

Reasoning: It’s certainly tough to make a case in backing Paul Silas’ 3-26 squad, which has literally lost 16 games in a row but I am going to grab the touchdown here and take my chances.

Handicapper Matt Rivers shoots for another winner

I have faded Charlotte with the best of them recently because without DJ Augustin Michael Jordan’s team has been an absolute non-competitive disaster. Not that they’re any good right now and not having Gerald Henderson is bad but Augustin did just come back in that last game against Minnesota and that means that today’s visitors have a legitimate point guard. Is the former Texas star great? No he isn’t but he is an NBA player who should have the ball in his hands a decent amount of the time and after easing his way back with only 24 minutes in that last game in Minnesota I believe we’ll see Augustin a lot more tonight.

Toronto isn’t as bad as Charlotte but are they are still a poor 9-22 overall and certainly aren’t anything better than a bad team themselves. Andrea Bargnani has been out a little while now and the former top pick is hands down the Raptors’ most dangerous weapon. I don’t mind DeMar Derozan or Jose Calderon but those guys aren’t exactly anybody I am all that afraid of and in the end the Bobbies are still an NBA team, with Augustin at least, and it would not shock me if they stop the horrendous skid today north of the border.

I don’t recommend anybody actually sitting down and watching this game but one of the worst teams in the league laying such a number is never a bad play, period.

Top expert pick on this game: Charlotte

For more information: It’s now 13 of 20 winning days, a 20-11-1 overall run in which my teams have covered by an amazing 84 points (yes, that includes the losses) and the profit is a whopping 2.65 million stars to the good. It’s not every day that I come firing out of the shoot in the NBA but today isn’t every day. A 400,000* underdog on the pro hardwoods is going to bash that Crookie upside his head and atone for the late free throw loss yesterday with Oregon State. Click now to purchase

Sports betting experts are immersed in many college basketball discussions these days, and two of them concern the rapidly deteriorating prospects for both Kansas State and Baylor. Kansas State once felt like a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but the Wildcats have gone into a tailspin over the past few weeks, putting themselves very much on the bubble in the chase for a spot in the field of 68. The general consensus is that Kansas State must win one of its next two games against Baylor and Missouri to feel good about its chances. The better chance for a win is against Baylor because the Bears have slid almost as far as Kansas State has in recent weeks. The difference between these teams is that Baylor was a No. 1 seed in early January, whereas Kansas State was a No. 7 seed. Baylor is still comfortably in the tournament field, but recent face-plants against Kansas and Missouri have destroyed the Bears’ sense of confidence. The sense here is that Kansas State will throw all of its energies at Baylor and score a genuine upset win on the road in Waco, Texas.

College Basketball Betting Pick: Kansas State

Game 2: Drexel Dragons @ Cleveland State Vikings – Saturday, February 18

When you do your homework and assess your sports bet on this game, you will quickly find that it’s hugely important for both teams’ chances of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team if they can’t win their respective conference tournaments in early March. Drexel might have a slightly better shot at this point, but the bottom line is that this is a must-win for either side. Drexel has been trending upward in recent weeks, going 13-2 in the Colonial Athletic Association under resolute head coach Bruiser Flint. Cleveland State looked like a team that was going to sew up an NCAA berth until it crashed and burned last week, scoring under 50 points in two bad home-court losses to Valparaiso and Butler. Drexel is a rugged team that should be able to keep Cleveland State mired in a slump. The Dragons will win this BracketBuster game on the road in Cleveland.

College Basketball Betting Pick: Drexel

Game 3: Duke Blue Devils @ Boston College Eagles – Sunday, February 19

The college basketball betting experts who follow the Atlantic Coast Conference remember the time when Boston College stood on even terms with everyone else in the league. Boston College gave Duke a big-time battle in the 2006 ACC Tournament Championship Game. Now, however, the Eagles are a shell of their former selves. They have no weapons at any spot on the court. They should be easy pickings for a Duke squad that flourishes as long as it doesn’t play opponents with imposing size or length near the basket. Duke should have its way with Boston College for 40 minutes on Sunday evening in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts.

College Basketball Betting Pick: Duke

Reasoning: If I’m jumping on the New York bandwagon one game too late then shame on me but I’m doing it. Jeremy Lin is legit and even with Amare Stoudemire back and possibly shaking up a little chemistry I can see the sizzling point guard continue to do his thing. It’s an unbelievable story and one of those one in a million type deals but I really am believing in the Harvard product and Mike D’Antoni’s squad going forward.

The Raptors are one of the weaker teams in the league without Andrea Bargnani. Toronto did just fight hard against Kobe and the Lakers over the weekend but they still came up short by a bucket in the end and all in all are a bad NBA basketball team. There are a few pieces with Bargnani and Jose Calderon but without the big man around things just do not come easy for the Raptors. They are 9-20 overall, have lost four of their last five games and six of eight and when they lose they have the downside of losing big. 

The Raptors at times rise up and compete but the eye test tells me that Lin and the Knicks, with the return of Stoudemire, are just too confident and too good. We saw the Novak’s and Shumpert’s and Chandler’s come to play in the absence of Stoudemire and Anthony and now with the big guy back and the emergence of Lin New York is a squad that will be tough to beat.

Laying points on the road is never the key to the mint but after 48 minutes the improving visitors should be too good.

Top expert pick on this game: New York

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Kansas State has been a dangerous team in Manhattan over the last five or so years. Even Kansas has had to watch it with the Wildcats

when traveling but Frank Martin’s current group is extremely mediocre and we saw another indication of just that a few days ago in the complete implosion in Austin against an average Texas team. K State has a few big boys and some talented guys with McGruder, Henriquez, Samuels and Spradlin but losing Jacon Pullen and Denis Clemente over the last couple of seasons has left a major void in guard play and leadership which has left a team that has regressed mightily.

Bill Self’s Jayhawks have grown on me in a major way. I expected this to be a rebuilding year after losing the Morris twins and a few others but it has turned out to be anything but. Thomas Robinson is a total monster and a player of the year candidate and Tyshawn Taylor can be great when he wants to be. These guys deserved to win at Missouri and then a few nights later did win easily in Waco against Baylor. I’m not saying that KU is going to win another national championship but it’s not out of the realm of possibility and right now these guys are light years better than their in-state rival. 

Winning on the road in such a spot is never easy and I do think we are looking at a competitive game through and through. But the Jayhawks are currently a confident and fairly well oiled machine that without a doubt should win this game and at this very cheap price become somewhat of a no-brainer.

Top expert pick on this game: Kansas

Bill Tanner has Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Bobcats

On Monday night, the Philadelphia 76ers will take on the Charlotte Bobcats in a battle of two Eastern Conference teams. The 76ers are 19-9 and lead the Atlantic Division. The Bobcats are 3-24, and have the worst record in all of the National Basketball Association.

The Bobcats cannot seem to find a way to win games. Charlotte has lost 14 straight games, including a blow-out loss Saturday to the Clippers. The Bobcats are the worst offensive team in the league with just 86.3 points per game. The top scorer for Charlotte is Gerald Henderson, with 15 per game.

For Philadelphia, they continue to have an excellent season. The 76ers are coming off a road win in Cleveland on Saturday. The 76ers are led in scoring by Lou Williams, with 15.7 points per game. Philadelphia, as a team is scoring 95.8 points per game, but allowing just 86.7.

The Philadelphia 76ers have been one of the best teams in the National Basketball Association against the spread. Philadelphia is 18-9-1, while Charlotte hasn’t been very good; with a 9-18 record. Philadelphia is 6-4 on the road, while Charlotte is 2-10 at home. The Bobcats are an 11.5 point underdog, which we feel is too many. We are betting the Bobcats.

Tanners Tip: Charlotte Bobcats +11.5

For more information: It doesn’t get much easier than the 300,000* Celtics yesterday who won in literally wire-to-wire fashion for the Real Matt Rivers. The red-hot Bulls never held the lead once as I beat down that Crookie a bit more. It’s now 11 of 16 winning days, a 17-8-1 overall run in which my teams have covered by an amazing 111 points (yes, that includes the losses) and the profit is a whopping 2.75 million stars of profit. When I win I win big and in the rare times I lose it’s pretty much been thanks to a late bad beat. That’s a great sign and I feel great!

One play today and I’m raising that bar with a 400,000* involving Syracuse and Louisville. Is this price cheap on the one loss Orange or are we looking at a seventh straight Cardinal victory? Here we go baby! Click now to purchase Matt Rivers card!

Reasoning: The road is never easy and this is a fairly tough spot away from Evanston for the Wildcats but in revenge I am fine with grabbing half a dozen or so.

Northwestern is a solid team led by a very good player in John Shurna. Have they imploded a time or two on the road? Sure they have but so does pretty much everybody that isn’t elite. Meanwhile Purdue is alright but they are not the Purdue from over the last bunch of seasons and are extremely flawed right now. The Boilermakers in reason times have been great in East Lafayette but that has not been the case this season as evidenced by losses in three of their last four at home. Matt Painter’s squad may win this game and sweep the series but it just isn’t going to come easy against a Northwestern team that has won three in a row including the victory at Illinois.

No need to stretch for winners says Matt Rivers

I have liked what Bill Carmody’s team has done for a few years now and we could be looking at a tournament team for the first time if they finish up strong. They will need a few more big Big 10 wins and this would be just that to get them back to .500 in the conference. By the way the Big 10 may be the best conference in the nation with the Big East not as tough as we have seen over the last few seasons.

Shurna, Sobolewski, Crawford and the rest of the visitors are going to be in this thing throughout and quite possibly pull off the outright.

Neither team is great and both teams need a victory but this thing truly could go either way.

Top expert pick on this game: Northwestern

For more information: Top play at 3:30 ET. 10 of 15 winning days, a 16-7-1 overall run in which my teams have covered by an amazing 110 points (yes, that includes the losses) and the profit is a whopping 2.65 million stars of profit. The big 400,000* yesterday had Maryland implode at the very end despite being down only three at the break and only falling outside of the number literally by the final margin. The 300,000* was on Vanderbilt who was outscored 8-0 in the game’s final four minutes in failing to cover by a single point and the 200,000* winner was on a 10 point dog in Delaware winning outright. So yes a rare losing day on Saturday but I am so on it it’s not even funny.

I’m destroying the man today and the big play comes on the NBA hardwoods involving the Bulls and Celtics in a 300,000* lock. Bonus 200,000* from college action with Pittsburgh and Seton Hall. 2-0 sweep! Click now to purchase

Reasoning: I was skunked earlier in the week by these same Blue Demons at home against Marquette but once again I will say how I believe DePaul is better than some people believe and at this price I’ll back the visitors.

No the Demons aren’t good and may actually be the worst team in the Big East but they had the lead in that last game at the half against a pretty good Golden Hurricane squad and have actually been fairly competitive of late including an outright at Rutgers as the 9 ½ point pup.

Handicapper says bad DePaul is a good team to bet in disguise

Notre Dame has been playing much better ball of late and it all started with the outright victory against then undefeated Syracuse. Mike Bray is a super coach who has done a ton in South Bend but this Fighting Irish team is still not even close to previous teams. Guys like Ben Hansbrough and Luke Harangody among others are long gone and this current version does not really scare me all that much at all. They may be an improved squad but that still doesn’t make them a good squad. Tim Abromaitas has been out forever and even if the Irish are 16-8 overall and a rock solid 8-3 in the Big East Notre Dame cannot be such a favorite. These guys play good enough defense to squeak out an underdog victory against a superior side but it’s a whole different animal to be able to take an inferior opponent behind the woodshed like this. Some teams just do not have that extra gear and blowout capability and Notre Dame is the epitome of just that.

Cleveland Melvin is good which probably isn’t enough to snap the Irish’ five game winning streak but for the at times offensively challenged and still mediocre Irish to be laying a dozen plus is just way too much, end of story.

Top expert pick on this game: DePaul

Now to The Canadian Crew with a pick on the Wyoming Cowboys (18-5, 4-3) vs. New Mexico Lobos (19-4, 5-2)

Odds: New Mexico -11

The Wyoming Cowboys are hoping to grab a piece of second place in the Mountain West West by knocking off the red hot New Mexico Lobos. But the Lobos will be looking to add on to their four game winning streak and aren’t likely to go quietly.

New Mexico has been on a serious roll the past couple of weeks since losing back to back games to conference leaders UNLV and San Diegeo State. Since then they’ve been dominating conference foes, outscoring them 302-197 since their current streak began.

Sophomore guard Kendall Williams has proven to be a major factor in the Lobos’ recent wins and is building momentum with each game. Over the course of the last four games he’s been averaging around 13 points and playing very strong. In their 65-49 win over Boise State, he put up a whopping 18 points.

But the Cowboys have proven themselves to be more than able to deal with high powered offenses. They showed off that skill set last Saturday by upsetting the then-#13 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels 68-66. At 80 ppg, UNLV is the ninth top scoring team in college hoops, but were all but silenced by the boys from Laramie.

That effort was led by big night from junior Leonard Washington (13.2 ppg) and senior Francisco Cruz (12.2 ppg). Both men scored 16 points on UNLV and were a big part of holding the Rebels to a 49 shooting percentage; and only 3 of 14 on three-point shots. A similar defensive performance could seriously hobble the Lobos today.

The problem with big wins (and since Wyoming hasn’t beaten a Top 25 team since 2000 this one qualifies as big) is that they’re frequently followed by big let downs. Wyoming has had a few bright moments this season, but mostly they’ve been pretty average on the court.

New Mexico is still very much in the hunt for the MWC title and there’s just too much on the line for them in this outing. Wyoming hasn’t shown that they can play spoiler on a regular basis, so this one should be all Lobos.

If you can still pick this one up -10 or -11, go with New Mexico. Some shops have the Lobos at -12.5 and if they do, take the Cowboys.

The Pick: New Mexico -12.5

Also Captain Vic Duke, the newest weapon in the OffshoreInsiders.com arsenal checks in with Cincinnati (+7) for 2 Units **

Cincinnati/Marquette 3:00: When you play sound defense, crash the boards hard and limit turnovers, you can win on the road. Such be the case for the  Bearcats which are a solid 6-1 ATS as a traveler.

Cincinnati also has good scoring balance with four starters in double-digits. Guards: Dixon, Kilpatrick and Wright can score consistently but 6’9” Gates could be a key factor here against a Marquette team with limited big men due to injuries to both of their centers. We’ll look for Cincinnati to grit it out here where they’ve won 3 of the last 4.

Bearcats are 4-1 ATS as a road dog in this spread range. Marquette has had trouble as a home favorite at 3-8-1 ATS and 0-5-1 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record. The road team in this series is 5-2 ATS and we’ll take the touchdown with Cincinnati.

Top expert pick on today’s card: The Knicks as a 4-unit bomb were the latest in a near-perfect line of Vic Duke OffshoreInsiders.com Exclusives. Vic has just unleashed a 4.5 Vic Duke OffshoreInsiders.com Exclusive that tips off at 1:00 ET Virginia/North Carolina side. He has two three-unit plays among five winners. Vic Duke’s 4.5 Unit pick and every service play needed are up