Rajon Rondo and the Celtics certainly came out in game three and made a statement. Boston seized the momentum and the home court advantage back in the win but I still do not mind Philadelphia here at this cheap chalk price. 

Doug Collins’ team is young and we have seen the ups and downs this season. This is the perfect spot for people to give up on Holliday, Williams, Iguodala, Young and the 6ers but I’m not. It’s going to be difficult to take four games from Doc Rivers’ veteran squad but let’s not get all that carried away because of game three.

The 76ers were the better team in both games in Beantown and just happened to lay an egg and get outclassed in that last game. This thing could easily be 2-1 in favor of Philadelphia and that would not have been a fluke.

I certainly respect the Celtics with their big four but it’s not like they aren’t flawed and just found themselves now en route to another championship. Expect Philly to come out with a little bit of vengeance after the embarrassing last performance and for this series to be tied back up.

Matt Rivers pick: Philadelphia

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Reasoning: Boston is the more experienced side and boasts the best player on the court in Rajon Rondo but truthfully the Celtics have been pretty awful thus far in the playoffs, save that game four blowout victory over the Hawks. On the opposite extreme we have a Philadelphia team which has been rocking and rolling and could easily be up 2-0 in this series. They don’t have a closer or the veteran presence of guys like Garnett, Pierce and Allen but the youth has been stepping up and now back home after winning five of their last seven games I’ll lay this cheap price. 

Holliday, Turner, Hawes, Brand, Young, Iguodala, Williams and the 76ers are deep, confident and pretty good. They wouldn’t have the same chance against the Heat as the Celtics as that isn’t a very good match-up for Philly but we’re not talking about Miami here.

It’s been a weird season for Doug Collins’ group as they have been a little feast or famine. The first half of the season was great, the second was terrible and now the third and most important part has been great again. It’s not a mortal lock but to pretty much just have to win at home in order to cover feels like the right side to me.

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St. Louis is coming off of that terrible series against the Braves and frankly is not as good as the record indicated before the series began or even indicates now after that sweep. Don’t get me wrong, the Cardinals are dangerous and do have some young talent. But losing Pujols and LaRussa was big and at some point we were going to see an issue or two. Mike Matheny did a great job getting the Redbirds out of the gate but with Lance Berkman banged up it was a matter of time before we saw the Cards come back down to Earth. 

Jake Westbrook has been great this season as evidenced by the 4-2 record and 1.76 record. But the veteran is still no better than good and these numbers will not continue. In fact Ryan Dempster and that almost sub one era is probably the better pitcher on the field today and after a successful win yesterday in Milwaukee why not grab this price with Dempster and the Cubbies?

Chicago isn’t going anywhere this season as they are one of the weaker teams but Dempster has been money and is well overdue to finally get that elusive first victory. In one of the bigger rivalries in the game there is no reason why the visitors from the Windy City can’t win this game behind their white-hot sinker-balling ace, no reason.

Top expert pick on this game Chicago Cubs

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Of special note is that the LA Kings are prohibitive favorites despite being the No. 8 seed.

Mon, May 14, 2012 EST

Perhaps even more stunning is that the 8^th seed is the favorite to win the Cup, not the East’s top seeded New York Rangers, who had to survive a pair of seven-game series. 

Finally, the Game 1 odds are set.

Reasoning: Neftali Feliz was a great closer and is a very good starter as evidenced by the ERA in the low 3’s. His Rangers also are probably the best team in the game right now and are being led by the beast of all beasts in Josh Hamilton. I understand how deep and great this Texas team is but Jered Weaver has become a superior and to get anything back with elite righty anywhere and against anybody is good enough to give a small go. 

Weaver threw that no-hitter a few starts back and really has been lights out for awhile now. Today is a challenge in Arlington and up against Ron Washington’s bashers will not be easy at all. But great pitching normally beats great hitting and especially in this post steroid deader ball era.

Anaheim has been somewhat of a disappointment but they are still a talented team with a guy in Albert Pujols who will bust out at some point in the near future. Add in the potential of Hunter, Morales, Kendrick and a few others and I am all right with Weaver plus some coin.

Rivers pick: Los Angeles Angels.

Now Bill Tanner has an NBA pick. Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat

Tanner’s Tip: The UNDER seems to be one of the most popular bets in the playoffs so far, and with good reason.  Defense has been the name of the game, with low-scoring matchups resulting in just about every series.  However, this series is a bit different.

The Heat will try to send a message to the Pacers in Game 1 that they can simply outscore them because they have superior players.  Miami certainly has more stars, but Indiana has more depth and can overwhelm the opposition over the course of a series.  The Pacers scored progressively more points in each of their five games against Orlando, averaging 99 per game in winning the last four.

They are confident offensively and can’t win a low-scoring game in this series.  That’s why they will try to set the pace and see if the Heat can keep up.  Miami topped the century mark in scoring in winning each of the first two meetings during the regular season, and I think that will be the case again on Sunday.  Look for both teams to combine for around 200 points.  Bet OVER 188

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Jordan Zimmerman is very good and has hurled quality starts in each of his six outings this season. Mat Latos hasn’t done that and has gotten drilled a few times thus far but the Cincinnati right-hander has a very high upside which we saw in San Diego and is every bit as good, if not better, than Zimmerman, who is ultra due to get hit hard. 

Zimmerman is a nice young arm with a bright future but let’s not go all gaga just yet. The guy is today pitching in a hitter’s paradise and things are not going to come easy today. Powerful lefty bats like Votto and Bruce are tough outs and the Reds, even though they have been far from overachieving, are still an explosive club that seems too cheap here.

There is a ton of value on the home Reds here at The Great American Ballpark and that’s who I’m backing in the end. Expect the Cinci lefty bats to get their hacks in and for Zimmerman to have his worst start of the season. If that’s not enough then so be it but I’m on the Redlegs.

Now to The Canadian Crew. San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Odds: SF -115/AZ +100; 8.5 o/u

San Francisco will be looking  to avenge their dismal opening stand in Phoenix this weekend when they face off against the Diamondbacks in the Valley of the Sun. The Giants are just 6-3 so far this month and are coming off an embarrassing 1-2 stand against archival the LA Dodgers. Things aren’t any better for the Diamondbacks who, as of Thursday, had lost five straight and were 7-2 on the month.

Starting the rotation for the Giants is veteran Matt Cain (1-2. 2.38)whose win/loss record isn’t really indicative of how he’s playing this season. A better indicator is the fact he struck out ten batters over six innings while giving up only two runs (both earned) against Milwaukee on Sunday.

The last time Cain faced off against Arizona was in the first week of the season. In that outing he gave up five runs (all earned), six hits and struck out four. It’s tough to read too much into a pitcher’s opening game, but for the most part he performed well. Looking at where he is today, he should do well against Arizona.

However Cain and the SF bullpen perform, they’re going to need the Giant offense to wake up if they’re hoping to walk away with a win. The Giants are 23^rd in the leagues in runs scored and were outscored 16-5 in their stand in LA.

Taking the mound for Arizona is Trevor Cahill (203, 3.26 ERA). So far this season Cahill is looking fairly promising. In his last start, a 3-1 loss to the Mets, Cahill gave up only three runs in seven innings, though he only struck out two batters. Thus far, Cahill has only given up one home run this season over 38 innings. Given that the Giants have only hit one home run in their last three games, he’s got a good chance of keeping that record intact.

The Diamondback are suffering from the same sort of offensive sluggishness that’s troubling the Giants. Over the course of their current losing streak they’ve been outscored 29-13 and three of those were home games.

We like San Francisco’s chances of pulling out of their slump on top of Cain’s controlled pitching, provided the bullpen can hold onto the lead.

The Pick: San Francisco -115

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So often we warn gamblers about the mortal sin of using inductive rather than deductive reasoning. The quintessence of that is the rapid circulation of the insipid illogic of “all you have to do is pick the straight up winner of a game and chances are you will have the spread winner.” It’s always followed by some stat where the outright winner has covered 80 percent of the time.  Dah. 

As any sports betting podcaster knows, when an underdog wins they cover 100 percent of the time.  The favorite cannot cover unless they win outright.  It’s impossible.  The only scenario in which a team can win and not cover is when the favorite wins but by a smaller margin than the spread.

Not shockingly the numbnuts who perpetuate unscientific preposterousness almost always quote stats relevant to the NBA or NFL.  In college sports there are more mismatches and hence larger spreads where the margin is larger for a favorite to win and not cover.

If a team is a 3.5 point favorite the only way the team that wins will not cover is for the favorite to win by one, two or three points. Any other result will have the team that wins covering.  At what percentage do these half-wits think a team should win and not cover?

Obviously the stupidity of this widely circulated inductive blather can be refuted from now until eternity.  Or at least until an underdog wins but fails to cover, whichever comes last.  But to those who subscribe to it as if there is any logic, thanks for keeping the books in business for the rest of us.

Since the prevailing premise behind this urban myth is “it’s so much easier to pick the SU winner than the spread winner” why don’t these fancied geniuses just pick dog winner after dog winner on the moneyline?

There are plenty of underdogs that win outright, many huge dogs in fact.  If one wants to postulate how much easier it is to pick the SU winner, why waste such foreknowledge on collecting $100 for every $110 risked?  Just keep picking those 250 dogs and get your money’s worth.

I don’t want to ruin this fool’s gold with such a logical question, but like I keep saying, I guess those pipe dreamers are needed to keep the books in business for the rest of us.  

No oddsmaker will go broke underestimating the intelligence of the betting public.

The author Joe Duffy has been a successful professional handicapper long before the Internet. Duffy burst on to the scene as scorephone legend “JD of the ACC”back in the 1980s and is now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

This is Boston’s last go around with this current crop of Garnett, Allen, Pierce and Rondo and I can see that pressure factor in a bit here. No doubt the Hawks are a team that has wet the bed in numerous big spots and this is another one of those but I have the feeling that with a rejuvenated and talented Al Horford back from injury we are going to see this Atlanta team come to play. 

Larry Drew’s squad has a lot of potential when healthy. Horford, Smith, Johnson and Teague are a foursome that can compete with any, they really can. Sometimes though the lackadaisical non-killer attitude that many Atlanta teams exude come back to haunt them. I believe that this is not going to be such an example. Game four certainly was a disaster but without Smith in the previous game we saw a courageous Hawks’ squad find a way to come back brilliantly late and go to overtime. Game six is going to resemble more of that one and to get half a dozen with Horford back is solid enough to give it a go.

The Celtics had a great second half of the season and really picked up their level of play. But I would not go as far and say this Doc Rivers team is as professional and trustworthy as some in the past. Rondo is great but could implode mentally again, Pierce and Allen are far from being 100% healthy and Garnett could have one of those 3-for 14 games and it wouldn’t be a total shock.

Yes Boston is the more experienced team and certainly should win this game at home but sign me up for the talented visitors as I think they bring a little more tenacity and game today then others do.

Top expert pick on this game: Atlanta Hawks

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2012 NBA Playoff Outlook – Second Round Prediction

When you do your homework and try to plan your next bet on sports in the NBA postseason, you will quickly find that, as of Wednesday, May 9, two matchups are almost certain to emerge in the second round of the playoffs. One is the Western Conference semifinal between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Los Angeles Lakers. The other is the Eastern Conference semifinal between the Indiana Pacers and the Miami Heat. Indiana has officially punched its ticket to the second round after dispatching the Orlando Magic in five games. The Heat have a 3-1 lead in their first-round series and can close down the New York Knicks in Game 5. The Heat and Pacers are almost certain to lock horns, probably this upcoming weekend, so let’s see how these teams stack up.

The biggest key in this series will be Indiana’s ability to find a reliable second scorer behind team leader Danny Granger. There is zero doubt that Granger is the Pacers’ main meal ticket, but much as Miami took away New York star Carmelo Anthony in the first round, given that the Knicks lacked depth and balance due to a number of injuries, it’s highly likely that the Heat will be able to contain Granger. They’re going to focus on denying him the ball and limiting his opportunities, which means that Indiana coach Frank Vogel needs a second man – probably forward Paul George – to answer the call. The question becomes: Is George mentally ready to shoulder such a workload (and a responsibility) against the star-studded Heat? The Pacers are a hard-working and overachieving team. They made the Chicago Bulls work in the first round of last year’s playoffs, and by winning over 40 games in this compressed 66-game regular season, the Pacers clearly surpassed expectations. Most basketball pundits think that their road will end here, but the knowledge that they’re the underdog could enable the Pacers to play with a level of freedom that was lacking for most of the team’s series against Orlando. Indiana played a liberated brand of ball in its Game 3 rout and in the second half of its Game 5 victory, but in Games 1, 2 and 4 of that series, the Pacers were uncertain and indecisive as a shorthanded Orlando team playing without Dwight Howard made the series closer than many observers were expecting.

Miami doesn’t just have star players in the persons of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, complemented by Chris Bosh and Shane Battier. The Heat work hard at the defensive end of the floor and make excellent rotations. LeBron should be able to stop Granger, and Bosh should be able to deny George in the paint. Indiana doesn’t have a dynamic point guard (Darren Collison) who can exploit the Heat at that position, so it seems that Miami should enjoy a substantial advantage throughout the course of this series.

Click here for the latest odds on the NBA playoffs.

NBA Playoff Second Round Prediction: Miami over Indiana in 5 games

Reasoning: This is just one of those nothing to lose plays. Cliff Lee always has the potential to be great but the lefty is coming off of the DL and the Phillies, without Utley and Howard, are a mediocre offense at the very best. Sure Pence, Victornio, Polanco and a few others aren’t bad but without the big boppers Charlie Manual’s team doesn’t scare me all that much. 

Dillon Gee was very good last season and has been just that this season, save the rare egg he laid against the Giants three starts ago. The New York right-hander should be just fine today at the Bank and has a decent chance to outpitch the returning Lee. Listen to sports handicapping podcasts for more great insight.

The Philly southpaw should be on somewhat of a pitch count coming back and I can see him go about six innings max. That leaves a full three innings of a decent but not great bullpen and in the end this price is just too much to pass up on a Mets’ club that has been very good so far this season, including coming back once again last night.

Now to Bill Tanner’s preview and pick on New York Knicks @ Miami Heat.

In game five of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals, the New York Knicks will take on the Miami Heat in South Beach. The Knicks come into the game fresh off their game four win at home, to stave off elimination. The Knicks are the 7^th seed in the East, while Miami is second.

The Miami Heat lost in the NBA Finals last season, but look to be one of the favorites to win it all this season. With Chicago almost eliminated, the Heat will have home court advantage through until the finals. The Heat are led by LeBron James, with 27.1 points per game. James scored 27 in the game four loss.

The New York Knicks are looking to stay alive. The Knicks returned Amare Stoudemire for game four, but will not see Jeremy Lin the rest of the series. Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler look to pick up the slack for New York. The Knicks received 41 from Carmelo Anthony in the win on Sunday.

The New York Knicks come into the game with a 14-21 record when playing away from Madison Square Garden. In the postseason they are 0-2. The Heat are 30-5 when playing at home. New York won 37 of 70 against the spread, while Miami is 35-35 ATS. We like the Heat in a blow-out in this game.

Tanners Tip: Miami Heat -10.5

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