Exclusive Conference Championship Bullet Points

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Joe Duffy’s Picks 208-137 in football. Wise Guy on both sides, top total of conference championship games. NBA side added to make it 4-0 Get the picks now

A massive spread for an NFL conference championship game is on display as the New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars sees Tom Brady’s boys a prohibitive favorite. Joe Duffy breaks it down for bettors.

Jacksonville vs. New England (-9, 46.5)

  • Pats league best 12-5 against the spread record but only +1.9 margin of cover
  • Jags league best +6.5 against the spread margin yet 10-8
  • New England over 6-3 home
  • Jags No. 4 over team by margin at +3.8 but over 9-9
  • Pats get 7.4 passing yards per attempt teams normally allowing 6.7, but Jags hold teams to .9 yards per pass below normal average
  • Jags surprisingly allow 4.3 yards per carry teams normally allowing 4.0
  • Pats very vulnerable to run allowing 4.7 yards per rush teams normally getting just 4.1 and 5.9 yards per play to 5.5
  • Leonard Fournette
  • Physical DBs of Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye and great pass rush means New England may establish the run
  • Vegas and offshore have just over 60 percent of bets on Patriots, but outlaw about same ratio on Jags

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Minnesota (-3, 38.5) vs. Philadelphia

  • Both teams 11-6 against the spread
  • Eagles second best against the spread margin at +6.1, Vikes fourth at +4.5
  • Eagles under 6-3 home
  • Vikings completing 67.4 percent of passes to defenses allowing 63.1 and get 7.2 passing yards per attempt to 6.7
  • Vikings hold teams to .4 yards per rush and 1.2 passing yards per attempt below normal average and .7 yards per play
  • Eagles hold teams to .3 yards per rush, .6 yards per pass, and .3 yards per play
  • Eagles allowed 26 points last three games, compared to Vikings 24 last game
  • Ajayi and Blount great guys to get 3-5 yards at a time, but against Vikes a home run hitter may be needed
  • Philly will run right and away from Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph
    • Behind Brandon Brook and Lane Joseph
  • Eagles will miss Jason Peters the most blocking Everson Griffen
    • Vaitai will be at a mismatch
  • Eagles best bet Alshon Jeffrey with height edge of Xavier Rhodes
  • Can Nelson Agholor have breakout game with Foles?
  • Eagles don’t match up with big, athletic tight ends like Kyle Rudolph
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