Saturday Bowl Odds, Betting Insight, Public Consensus Bets, What Sportsbooks Pray You Never See

Louisville vs. Mississippi State, Iowa State vs. Memphis, Washington vs. Penn State, Wisconsin vs. Miami Florida. The official betting preview of Taxslayer Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl. Get pro bettors news and notes from superstar handicapper Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com

Joe Duffy’s Picks

  • 196-128 since preseason, all football picks
  • 18-8 bowls
  • Postseason high of three CFB Wise Guy plays Saturday, plus Major

Iowa State vs. Memphis (-4, 66)

• Iowa State +10.3 against the spread margin, second best in country and 10-2 against the spread one of just two teams with double-digit against the spread wins

• AAC is 3-11 in games +/1 4.5 point of pick (Iowa State)

  • Memphis only loss to undefeated UCF in a great game
  • Many sharps says Iowa State has not seen anything like this explosive Memphis offense
  • Memphis at home, Iowa State travels 513 miles
  • Modest consensus on Iowa State, but rare for underdogs

Wisconsin (-4.5, 44.5) vs. Miami Florida

• ACC 10-3 in New Year’s bowl and playoff games recently (Miami)

• ACC 30-13 underdogs of 6.5 or less in bowls (Miami)

• When the ACC meets the Big 10 in bowls, underdog a stunning 17-1-1 run (Miami)

• Miami fifth luckiest team in nation as two losses by a combined 45 points, but three wins by five or less

• Miami started 10-0 SU, but lost 2-of-3 down stretch

  • Home game for Canes
  • Miami lost TE Christopher Herndon
    • Expected to be drafted, second leading receiver in yards at 477, 4 TDs, 40 catches
  • Canes also without star WR Ahmmon Richards, who had 28 catches in eight games, 3 TDs
  • FootballOutsiders, very respected advanced metrics, has Wisconsin as top defense in nation
  • Wisconsin traveling 1290, Miami 14

Louisville (-6.5,63) vs. Miss State

• Miss State HC Dan Mullen left and took DC Todd Grantham with him

• Biggest story Nick Fitzgerald out for MSU

  • Freshman Keytaon Thompson very talented
    • MSU plenty of chances to play to his strength with time off
    • Just 46 career passes

• Going against favorites entering on a three-game SU and ATS streak playing a defense that is not horrid is 20-4 (Miss State)

• Yet Louisville still overall and bad spread team for the season and fit into an angle 161-111 that says go with bad spread teams

O Seemingly conflicting angles applied in the same game 11 times, 6-5 in favor of Louisville

• SEC West may not be powerhouse, but non-elite teams benefit from rest

• Statfox has Mis State SOS much better

• Massey Miss State 34, Louisville 33 (so basically dead even)

• Miss State without key DB Jamal Peters

• Miss State getting 6.5-7

  • Louisville traveling 595 miles, Miss State 472
  • Strong Louisville consensus offshore and Vegas, less so with local books

Washington vs. Penn State (-2, 55)

  • Washington coming 1106 miles, Penn State 1942
  • Strong consensus on Penn State
  • Both teams scored 30 or more points 10 times this season
  • Penn State’s two losses by back-to-back by combined four points
  • Teams combine to average 78.5 points per game
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