Week 16 NFL Betting and Fantasy Football Critical Intel

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Superstar handicapper Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com previews Christmas Eve and Christmas Day betting.

Houston vs. Fresno State

  • Fresno State +9.5 against the spread margin , third best in country and 10-2-1, one of just two teams with double-digit against the spread wins
  • Fresno State under 10-3-1 by -9.1 points per game
  • AAC is 3-11 in games +/1 4.5 point of pick (Fresno State)

NFL

Browns vs. Bears

  • Winless teams week 15 or later not getting at least a TD are 4-0 SU and against the spread, getting 3 or more each time and won by average of .6.5
  • Teams that have lost 22-of-23 are a go-against of 26-8 but one time angles went head-to-head the horrid team won (Browns versus Chargers last year)
  • Browns league worst spread record at 3-11, but -4.3 more competitive
  • Bears under 10-4 tops in league, as -4.7 margin third as far as unders
  • Bears 0-7 favorites

Lions vs. Bengals

  • With much worse turnover team is 570-438-27 (Bengals) but static since 2014
  • Go with big home underdogs off a blowout loss 78-46 (Bengals)
  • Lions a dome team playing outdoors
  • Bengals despite 7-7 against the spread record, second worst margin in NFL at -4.9
  • Lions over 9-5 tied tops in league, but +5 tied for third
  • Bengals had several key players pass concussion protocol: LB Vontaze Burfict, RB Joe Mixon, and CB Dre Kirkpatric
  • Must win for Lions

Buccaneers vs. Panthers

  • Panthers rookie RB Christian McCaffrey averaging 5.0 yards per carry last six games with 5 TDs

Rams vs. Titans

  • Rams league best +9.2 against the spread margin at 9-5
  • Rams over 9-5 tied tops in league, but +5 tied for third

Jaguars vs. 49ers

  • Jaguars +9.0 against the spread margin, and 9-5 against the spread record, both second in NFL
  • Jacksonville with be without WR Marquise Lee, while fellow WR Allen Hurns is questionable
  • Statistically Blake Bortles best QB in December

Broncos vs. Redskins

  • Denver is 4-9 against the spread with league worst sweat barometer at -5.5
  • Skins RB Samaje Perine is questionable, though he says he will be “fine.”
    • 156 carriers for 547 yards
  • Broncos 1-8 road

NY Giants vs. Arizona

  • Arizona 4-9 against the spread with third worst against the spread margin at -4.7
  • Cardinals with Stanton at QB
  • Giants stud DE Jason Pierre-Paul is expected to play despite broken finger

Falcons vs. Saints

  • Falcons top under team by margin -5.8 going under 9-5
  • Teams off road games in which they scored a defensive TD go under 132-74 (Atlanta)
  • Saints Pro Bowl WR Michael Thomas is “50-50”
  • Only second player in NFL history with 90 catches and 1,000 yards in first two years
  • 19 catches the previous two weeks
  • Pretty much must-win for both, but especially Birds

Free pick: Saints UNDER 52.5

Chargers vs. Jets

  • Chargers under 10-4 tied for biggest under team based on record, second in margin at -4.9
  • Jets 20-9 home underdogs
  • Chargers will with playoff shot, must-win

Bills vs. Patriots

  • Bills WR Kelvin Benjamin is questionable
  • Bills first team out of playoffs on tiebreaker, definite must-win

Dolphins vs. Chiefs

  • Kansas City under 14 straight off a win by more than a touchdown when their opponent has forced an average of fewer than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date
  • Chiefs in playoffs, but definitely must-win

Seahawks vs. Cowboys

  • LT Tyron Smith, perhaps Pokes best OL is probable
  • Ezekiel Elliot is back from six-game suspension
  • Must win for both
  • Seattle a bit short-handed and feuding

Monday, Christmas Day

Steelers vs. Texans

  • Houston top over team, exceeding total by average of 7.5, yet only over 7-7
  • Texas WR DeAndre Hopkins questionable
    • 92 catches and 12 TDs

Raiders vs. Eagles

  • Eagles league best 10-4 against the spread record and third-best against the spread margin at +7.1
  • Philadelphia over by +5.8, second in NFL but modest 8-6 over record
  • Raiders WR Amari Cooper is questionable
    • 42 receptions and 5 TDs
  • Eagles fighting for home field advantage in possible NFC Championship game with Vikings
  • Nick Foles QB as Carson Wentz is out

Consensus: Washington, Pittsburgh, Rams, and rare dog on Cleveland

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