Colts vs. Ravens, Vikings vs Packers, Texas Tech vs. South Florida, Army vs. San Diego State, Appalachian State vs. Toledo Betting

Colts vs. Ravens, Vikings vs Packers, Texas Tech vs. South Florida, Army vs. San Diego State, Appalachian State vs. Toledo. Saturday NFL betting picks preview, plus Birmingham Bowl, Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, Dollar General Bowl, free football pick and more. Joe Duffy’s Picks has hit 4-of-5 football picks with only loser seeing a game go under despite 52 points in the first half. Two bowl Wise Guys, NFL sides, basketball coming at OffshoreInsiders.com

Colts vs. Ravens

  • Ravens technically first team out of playoffs on tiebreaker, but motivation is need to win remaining two games
  • Two worst offenses in terms of yards per play as Colts get 4.6, Ravens 4.7
  • When both teams are averaging 4.7 or fewer yards per play in game 12 or later, it goes over 28-15 since 1999
  • Indianapolis 13 starters on IR
  • Colts Frank Gore needs 207 yards final two games to be only fifth guy with 1,000 yards in 10 different seasons
  • Very modest consensus for Baltimore, well below normal for favorites

Vikings vs. Packers

  • Leading receiver Davante Adams is out
    • 74 catches, 10 TDs
  • QB Case Keenum, who has completed 67.9 percent of his passes (second in NFL behind Drew Brees),
  • RBs Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray have filled the void left by rookie starter RB Dalvin Cook, helping the Vikings RB group total 2,171 yards from scrimmage this season, the fourth-highest total among all RB groups in 2017
  • Vikings tied for league best 10-4 against the spread record, though against the spread margin of +5 is a more modest fifth
  • Packers only team with 10 overs this season though shockingly only over by .8
  • Brett Hundley 8 TDs, 8 INT, though 3-0 to Browns
  • First time facing opponent for second time
  • Very small consensus on Minnesota, substantially less than normal for road favorites

CFB

Texas Tech vs. South Florida (-3 -105, 65.5)

  • AAC is 3-11 in games +/1 4.5 point of pick (Texas Tech)
  • USF was considered to be the potential fly-in-ointment team but lost twice and settled for No. 3 seed in conference
  • South Florida second in country at 85.4 offensive snaps per game
  • USF was considered to be the potential fly-in-ointment team but lost twice and settled for no. 3 seed in conference
  • Teams with exactly two losses and the second loss was to close out the regular season are 18-1 su and 17-1-1 against the spread (USF)
  • Still non-power 5 should have chip on shoulder
  • Charlie strong knows Texas Tech and beat them two of last three years
  • USF regional feed advantage traveling 438 to 866 for tech
  • Counterintuitive line? Teams with four or more losses than opponent yet not getting at least a field goal in bowls is 2-0
    • If at least three more losses 15-4 since 2007
  • Tech travels 866 miles, USF 438
  • Solid consensus on USF
  • The “counterintuitive angle” is consistent with so many in all sports we win with, plus USF still likely in consolation bowl, so free pick is…

TEXAS TECH +3

Army vs. San Diego State (-6.5, 46)

  • Mountain West favorites of 7 or less have gone under 21-4 in the bowls
  • SD State led by Rashaad Penny top rusher in nation at 2,027 yards
  • Army top rushing team averaging 368.1 passing yards per game and 29.6 rushing yards per game
  • Total dropped four points from opener of 50
  • San Diego State traveling 1151 miles, Army 1415
  • Solid consensus on San Diego State

Appalachian State vs. Toledo (-6.5, 61)

  • App State travels 529 miles, Toledo 798
  • Rematch of Camellia Bowl won by ASU last year 31-28
  • Toledo 4-2 SU to bowl bound foes, App State 2-2
  • Modest consensus on Toledo, well below normal amount for chalk
  • Opened at -8
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