Week 13 NFL Free Pick and Crucial Breaking Sports Betting Intel

Joe Duffy’s Picks. Oops, we did it again! JDP sweeps with Wise Guys on Ohio State UNDER, Oklahoma UNDER to lead us to a 6-2 Saturday. We ware 163-104 in football. Keep betting on your own and keep the books in business for us sharps or change the rest of your gambling life. Sunday, Duffy has Late Kickoff Game of the Year among four winning picks. As long as you have a package that includes Sunday, you can access.

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Broncos vs. Dolphins

  • Broncos league worst 2-8-1 against the spread record and margin at -7.5
  • Dolphins second worst against the spread margin at -6.4
  • Angle that says in a battle of two horrible teams, go against home favorite or small dog is 148-99 (Go with Denver)
  • Trevor Siemian vs. Jay Cutler

Browns vs. Chargers

  • Browns worst against the spread record in league at 2-9, though “only” -4.6 (tied for 4th worst)
  • Chargers top under team, going under by 4 points per game and under 7-4

Texans vs. Titans

  • Houston still top over team by massive margin at 9.5 but under 3-1 last four
    • 5 times exceeded total by at least 14 points per game, once with Tom Savage
  • Titans despite 7-4 SU mark, outscored by 27 points per game for year
  • Going against teams outscored by at least 24 points for season, yet at least three games above .500 is 14-4 (favors Texans)

Minnesota vs. Atlanta

  • Go with a team in a nice stretch of not turning the ball over is 166-114 (Vikings)
  • Teams on at least a six-game winning streak, yet getting at least three points are 3-19 since 2008 (fade Vikings)
  • Falcons should get RB Devonta Freeman back
  • Julio Jones and Adam Thielen and second and third ranked RBs in terms of yardage
    • Thielen 27 catches for 476 yards last game
  • Keenum last three road games 108 passer rating
  • Vikings holding teams to .6 yards per rush and .7 yards per pass below normal average
  • Atlanta gets .3 more yards per carry than their opponent normally allows and .9 passing yards per attempt more
  • Vikings 8-3 (2nd best) +5.3, fifth best in NFL
  • Atlanta starting CB Desmond Trufant is out and Atlanta goes up against a team with two quality WRs in Diggs and Thielen

Rams vs. Cardinals

  • Rams second best against the spread margin team +8.7 at 7-4
  • Cardinals -5.8 against the spread margin is third worst in league
  • Teams with a cumulative season-to-date against the spread deficit of 133 or worse is 73-48 against the spread (Rams)
  • Similar angle, but based on average margin per game (applies earlier in season) is 284-206

Free picks: ARIZONA +7

Tampa Bay vs. Green Bay

  • Jameis Winston returns at QB for Buccaneers
  • Tampa lost perhaps their two best OL C Ali Marpet and OT Demar Dotson
  • Packers 1-4 SU since losing Aaron Rodgers
  • Green Bay 14-1 SU home in series
  • Winston thrived under adversity
  • Road teams off a road loss 71-29 in a game the oddsmakers expect to be close
  • Tampa RB Doug Martin is out
    • Last two years just 2.9 and 3.2 yards per rush

Colts vs. Jaguars

  • Despite 6-5 against the spread margin, Jacksonville is +7.8 against the spread margin

Lions vs. Ravens

  • Ravens last three wins were to Miami, Green Bay, and Houston, three teams with seventh string QBs
  • Teams with a maximum of five full days rest versus an opponent with at least eight full days are 48-38 against the spread (Ravens) including 14-8 if they are off a win and much more rested opponent is off a loss
  • Baltimore nice three-headed RB committee with Alex Collins, Danny Woodhead, and Buck Allen
  • Road teams that have been better on the road than at home are 118-78
  • Detroit No. 2 over team by 5.9 points per game, though No. 1 by record at over 8-3
  • Eye test Lions

49ers vs. Bears

  • Jimmy Garoppolo makes debut for 49ers
  • Mitch Trubisky dead last among QBs with 52.8 rating and sacked 19 times
  • Bears hope to get ILB Danny Trevathan back
  • Lions No. 2 over team going over +5.9 points per game, though No. 1 in terms of record going over 8-3
  • Bears No. 1 under team going under by -3.5, under 7-4

NY Giants vs. Oakland

  • Oakland WR Amari Cooper is out
    • 42 catches in 11 games
  • Raiders already without suspended WR Michael Crabtree
    • 10 games and 42 catches
  • Geno Smith era begins for Giants, who benched Eli Manning

Patriots vs. Bills

  • Buffalo very banged up on offense including top WR Kelvin Benjamin, who had 4 receptions in two games since they got him from Panthers
  • Top two TEs questionable as is WR Jordan Matthews
    • Matthews 24 catches in nine games

SNF

Eagles vs. Seahawks

  • Eagles league best 9-2 against the spread and league best 10.1 against the spread margin
  • Seattle TE Jimmy Graham is questionable
    • 49 catches in 11 games
  • Seattle thinned on defense, will have LB Bobby Wagner

Consensus: Green Bay, LA Chargers, Oakland

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