Week 11 NFL Free Picks, Inside Betting Information and Fantasy Football Intel

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Jaguars vs Browns

  • Jags +10 against the spread margin is second in NFL, though 5-4 to the number
  • Browns worst against the spread mark in league at 2-7 though against the spread margin -4.4
  • Jags RB Leonard Forunette is questionable after being very limited in practice with ankle injury
  • Interconference regression to the mean relative to points per game margin is 95-40 and favors Browns
  • A turnover table regression to the mean is 566-432 (applies a couple of more times with premium picks)
  • Big favorites in non-divisional games against teams with a solid yards per rush goes under 28-4
  • Cleveland 0-13 underdogs versus an opponent averaging at least 30 rushes per game
  • 20 mph winds

Free pick: CLEVELAND +7.5 and UNDER 37

Redskins vs. Saints

  • Saints 7-2 against the spread by 9.7, third in NFL
  • Skins without WR Terrelle Pryor and TE Jordan Reed

Bills vs. Chargers

  • Chargers under 6-3 with best under margin of -7.6
  • Chargers QB Philip Rivers has been cleared from concussion protocal

Rams vs. Vikings

  • Rams 5-0 SU and 4-1 against the spread on the road
  • Both are +.8 yards per play margin though Rams with a much higher points per game margin
  • Rams get 8.2 yards per pass teams normally allowing 6.8, but Vikings hold teams to .6 yards per rush and .6 yards per pass below normal average
  • Jared Goff does tend to backpedal still when pressured and Vikings Joseph, Stephen, Griffen, Hunter, and Barr
  • Rams league best +12 against the spread margin at 5-3
  • Rams over 6-3 at +6.3, second in league

Lions vs. Bears

  • Lions on a nice easy stretch beating Packers, Browns last two weeks by 13 and 14 points
  • Much worse turnover teams is 566-432 (Bears)
  • Bears lost to Packers
  • Mitch Trubisky completing a mere 51.3 percent of passes and a terrible 161.8 passing yards per game
  • No shock, public all over Lions
  • Stafford road favorites off consecutive wins
  • 15 mph winds

Bengals vs. Broncos

  • Denver a league worst -8.2 against the spread margin 2-6-1 to number

Cardinals vs. Texans

  • Arizona 2-6-1 with second worst against the spread margin at -7.3
  • Texans largest over team in league going over by +9.7, but under two straight without DeShaun Watson
  • Angle that says a big over team that is trending under the last two games, goes under 26-19
  • Blaine Gabbert starts at QB for Cards and Drew Stanton is questionable with knee injury
  • Game oddsmakers expect to be close, go against teams off loss as home underdog based on time of possession angles is 22-2 (Favors Houston)
  • But bad teams off a loss that was not a blowout are 273-184 (favors Arizona)

Ravens vs. Packers

  • Small road favorites winning percentage of .550 or less decent 302-265 (Ravens)
  • Brett Hundley off big effort to Bears but faces Ravens defense that holds teams to .5 yards per pass below normal average
  • Packers still above .500 and could sneak into the playoffs
  • Flacco 31-of-33 qualifying QBs in passer rating and 33 in yards per pass
  • Ravens get 4.8 yards per pass teams normally allowing 6.3
  • Since 2014 totals of 39 or less have gone under 20-8
  • Small road favorites despite losing at least 3-of-4 SU are 121-90 (favors Ravens)
  • 15 mph winds

Chiefs vs. Giants

  • Giants numerous injuries at non-skilled positions
  • 18 mph winds

SNF

Eagles vs. Cowboys

  • Philadelphia 7-2 at +8.3
  • Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery is questionable
    • First on team in targets and second in receptions and receiving yards

Biggest consensus: New England, Philadelphia, Detroit, Kansas City

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