Free Pick on Patriots vs. Buccaneers, Louisville vs. NC State

Since preseason we are 58-34. We just keep winning and winning. Arkansas State last night. Thursday three winners led by Wise Guy winners in both college football and NFL. Yes, going back to preseason we are hitting 63 percent with over 100 selections. Same results, different year and decade. Get used to it newbies. Your life has changed for the bettor (sic) at OffshoreInsiders.com

  • Pats No. 2 over team, going over all four by 15.5 points per game
  • Pats third worst spread team at -8.8 and 1-3
  • Teams with a worse winning percentage yet still a road favorite of 3.5 or more are 18-12
  • Tom Brady off a loss is 30-10 against the spread and 20-3 on the road
  • Bill Belichick has never won in Tampa as an assistant or head coach
  • Biggest regular season game in Tampa history
  • Tampa gets back Doug Martin from suspension this week
    • 4,227 career yards rushing for 4.2 but just 2.9 yards per rush last year
  • Two solid TE in Cameron Brate and OJ Howard
  • DeSean Jackson only nine catches but Martin could open things up
  • Brady has been sacked 13 times, seventh in the league
  • Patriots 9-3 favorites
  • Slightly below median consensus for road favorites and modest percentage over, less than normal

Free pick is: OVER

Louisville (-3.5, 66) vs. NC State

  • Juice varies from -102 to -112 at SBRodds and total 65.5-66.5
  • Louisville won 54-13 when they met last year
  • Teams off victories of a combined 80 points or more are 258-212 unless laying more than 28 but only 59-59 if ranked
  • Louisville QB Lamar Jackson should be well rested as he’s played just five quarters the last two weeks
  • NC State’s defensive line is among strengths of the team
  • First time two ranked teams at Carter-Finley Stadium since 2000
  • Louisville’s Jaylen Smith who had 22 catches in the first three games is out
  • About 70 percent consensus on Louisville, normal for small road favorites

MYBookie | Intertops |Betonline | SportsBetting | Bovada

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