We have stated many times that the single most overrated statistic when it comes to picking spread winners is straight up won-loss record. So what it the most underrated? That’s a lot tougher inquiry because there are many. But when it comes specifically to picking winners on football totals, offensive snaps per game would top the list.
Our Golden Rule of handicapping totals in football and basketball is that it is much more about pace than offensive or defensive competence. By no means whatsoever does this mean one should blindly bet high snaps over or low snaps under.
Baylor for example is well established as a high-powered team, so it is tough to get value betting the over. But a well-researched handicapper knows finding a disconnect between the likely number of plays and the posted total is a big edge in sports betting links
Entering games of October 2, here the top five teams in terms of offensive snaps. Over-under record listed in parenthesis with overs listed first.
- Western Kentucky 92.2 (3-1)
- Baylor 90.7 (3-1)
- Bowling Green 90.5 (4-1)
- Colorado 90 (2-3)
- Tulsa 89.8 (4-0)
Do not expect many fireworks with the following teams. Here are the squads with the fewest number of offensive plays.
- Vanderbilt 57.8 (2-3)
- South Florida 59.2 (2-3)
- Eastern Michigan 60.7 (2-1)
- Central Michigan 61.8 (2-3)
- Florida Atlantic 62.2 (3-2)
Of course we have warned about using inductive reasoning in sports handicapping. Yes the fact that only three of the five slower paced teams are “under” teams is a mild surprise at 12 under to 11 overs. The most up-tempo squads have gone over at a sweet 16-6 rate.
The disclaimer about inductive reasoning acknowledged, there is little debate knowing the pace of each team is the number one foreteller in making handicapping a “snap.”
Urgent: not just Joe Duffy’s Picks influence on the markets but also clearly other power brokers in sports betting are using the same metrics we are. So we have a substantial portfolio for this upcoming weekend already up. Six college football Wise Guys among nine college football winners. The biggest story of them all is the NBC Game of the Year between Stanford and Notre Dame. We have as obvious of a battle of dichotomous straight up and against the spread teams. Newbies, what is that? Buy now because it is one of the great angles that covers all spread sports.
Which teams are the oddsmakers clearly behind meaning they are either indisputably the most over or underrated teams in the country? Get it all at OffshoreInsiders.com