Joe Duffy’s Picks continues to make a mockery of sportsbook odds, be it 148-111 with all football sides since last year to the recent 7-2 college football Wise Guy run. America’s only Grandmaster Sports Handicapper has a free pick as well on:
BAYLOR -21.5 Iowa State
Long before newer handicappers thought they discovered a “sweat barometer” we had been using the same thing by the less sexy name of “margin of cover” to measure how far behind a team the oddsmakers are. Baylor again 3-0 against the spread by a spread margin of +13 points per game (11th in nation). They are 6th the past two years combined.
As those who have been with us since our scorephone days of the 1980s know, we have always used cutting edge software to win for you and us. College football is the one sport in which not only do favorites do well, but large favorites. In this case favorites of 21 or more off bye since 2005 are 65-28. Between 21.5-32 it is 44-13-3 when off a bye week.
The Bears beat Iowa State 71-7 last season in Waco, Texas. Yes it is true that ISU just 36 points last six quarters. But that is a double-edged sword because even the most optimistic Cyclones fan knows that will not hold up today, so how will the very young secondary react once the Baylor offense shows them their king defense wears no clothes? Iowa State currently ranks in the bottom third of passing, rushing, points and points allowed. Their straight up record is better than their key metric numbers.
Baylor leads the Big 12 in scoring (59.3), passing (416.0), rushing (238.3), total offense (654.3) as well as in rush defense (64.3), scoring defense (9.0) and ranks second in total defense (221.0). Despite losing Bryce Petty for a game, the Bears still lead the nation in total offense and scoring offense, both by a substantial margin. Petty is back, and will be joined by Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman. Iowa State’s offense is pedestrian. How will they stay close? In such an up-tempo game, three touchdowns is not a lot.
Iowa State had one player named total to the Preseason All-Big 12 Team: tight end E.J Bibbs. On the other hand, Baylor had seven different players named Preseason All-Big 12, including Bryce Petty as the Offensive Player of the Year. Enjoy the rout!
The pick: Baylor.
Five college football Wise Guy plays are up for Saturday. Four Majors are up. Oh wait until you see the intel. It will blow your mind! You will not believe what you read next when you click. We exploit a team that has completely changed their pace and the oddsmakers clearly have not caught up. Quite frankly the computer has been so kind to us in previous years, we have to ride some seriously highly corroborated metrics. That is why we are 7-2 with Wise Guy plays and winning in every sport when you measure success by the season, decade, and quarter century. Georgia Southern and MTSU, we are undefeated in college football this week. Yes all football sides combined preseason through postseason college and NFL we are 148-111 with football sides.
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