End of Steroid Era One of the Best Gifts Ever to Pro Bettors

From the late 1980s until the early part of this century, my MLB picks put up a sustained winning streak that likely will never be matched by anyone in any sport. I never hid my basic secret: oddsmakers overplay pitching.

Hitting was much more of a coefficient, while pitching is so fluid. Even the cynics were converted when I challenged them to make a year end list of the 25, 50, or 100 biggest surprises and disappointments among MLB players and that they would find out the list was disproportionately pitchers. It was a point conceded 100 percent of the time.  default

Not that they automatically agreed with my ultimate conclusion 100 percent of the time, but that premise was acknowledged and accepted.

But shortly after the turn of the century, MLB was no longer easy pickings in beating William Hill’s betting odds. We still won, but at a much slower rate. What changed? Handicapping offense was not as unfaltering as it used to be. Hitting statistics became almost as volatile as pitching. As the game changed, so did our metrics.

My biggest regret in handicapping is often I wish I had come to some realizations earlier. As offensive numbers began to regress to the pre-steroids, the light bulb went off above me head.

Truth is to master baseball handicapping during baseball’s dark period, one had to know who was on the juice.  Baseball’s “hear no evil, see no evil” policy manufactured offense. Although the meme that the Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds synthetic home run chase “saved the game” may be overstated, there is no question Major League Baseball’s willful ignorance was great for the popularity of the game, but made it more difficult for pro bettors to exploit oddsmakers’ frailties.

Finally, with enormous pressure from the US Congress and the aid of the Major League Baseball Players Association, baseball finally aggressively addressed the issue.

I theorized that as offenses were no longer as fluid, the glory days of baseball may be back for good. So I backtracked and tested. Yes, the old metrics of the Golden Era returned with a vengeance. Exploiting the fact that Vegas and offshore bookmakers undervalue the more accurately predicted offense returns as the silver bullet in baseball handicapping.

Two Saturdays before the 2013 MLB All-Star break, my research indicated it was due time. I completely rolled back to the metrics that led to unprecedented prosperity for about 15 years.

Addressing steroids was great for the game of baseball. It is infinitely better for the pro gambler.

The author Joe Duffy offers his MLB picks and all sports at OffshoreInsiders.com   


About the Author

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy got his start in the sports handicapping industry with the Dial Sports (Communications Team) audiotext network. It was owned by sportswriter, broadcaster and handicapping pioneer Mickey Charles. Dial Sports was the sister company of the popular Sports Network Wire Service. Upon graduating California University of PA, where he was a play-by-play announcer on student radio station WVCS (now WCAL) and cable channel 29 (now CUTV), he became a full-time sports announcer and handicapper for the Sportsline scorephone network. He learned from NFL legends coach Hank Stram and broadcasting icon Ray Scott the ins and outs of the sports betting world. His Amazing Cadillac Club became the most successful 900-number in sports betting history. He left to become the first General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network broadcast all over North America. His articles have appeared on several dozen websites and hard copy publications. He is now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world. Email: contact@joeduffy.net

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