ESPN.com and ESPN The Magazine did a noble profile on famed NBA gambler Haralabos Voulgaris. “Bob” is also a poker player. However, what was of most interest to these eyes were his theories on NBA betting.
There was nothing he asserted that caused disagreement with this grizzled handicapper, who has been selling picks since the late 1980s, and betting them much longer than that.
Bob’s truthful philosophies can actually be expanded both in scope and in pertaining to other sports. Some examples:
Ewing Theory: In short, it says a team is better (especially to bet on) once they rid of their overrated superstar. We have found this most affective with NFL quarterbacks. However, the shelf life is longer, much longer fading the team the overrated player goes to rather than betting on the team he leaves.
However the prettier sister of the Ewing Theory is our Predictably Unpredictable angle. Perhaps I need to be better at branding my winning philosophies because I’ve interchangeably given it the moniker of, “Box of Chocolates.”
That is when a teams’ talent exceeds their production, bet on, yes I said on them if they are a big underdog in a slump, but wager against them as a big favorite in a winning streak because betting on inconsistent teams to be well, inconsistent makes a lot of sense and dollars.
Of course such terms are subjective. Every single piece of evidence we use to make a pick is weighted accordingly. Hence there are clearly different levels of leverage we apply when the Box of Chocolates or Ewing Theory manifests.
Quantitative Revolution: The use of computer models, simulations, and statistics to handicap sports. We love that the ESPN article used the magic word in accurately measuring numbers as it applies to gambling: “efficiency.”
No longer must bettors invest tens and tens of thousands of dollars in paying a programmer. The best bare bones stats are on such sites as KenPom.com, NBA.com with their plus/minus stats, FootballOutsiders.com, BBstate.com, FoxSheets.com, and ESPN.com’s John Hollinger just to tip the iceberg.
Just like a chainsaw, when used properly, such aforesaid tools can save hours of work when a competent person is utilizing the tool. But disaster will strike when an unskilled person has access.
Perhaps most compelling was his admittance that 2012-13 was in his exact words, “One of the more difficult years.” This is not so ironic because one of our recent articles focused on how our internal audit concluded that technology is best when it corroborates time-proven techniques such as spot play, situational analysis, and injuries among many other factors.
Perhaps Haralabos Voulgaris will soon make the same unearthing.