Another Sports Betting Myth By Wayside: Betting Double-Digit Rivals

Sports bettors have plenty to be thankful for, most importantly accurate information such as sports betting eBook. There are several versions of the “bet the underdog in big rivalries,” the so-called “throw out the point spread when these two meet.” But does this hold up from a betting standpoint?

“Rivalry” is a bit subjective in and of itself, not to mention does one bet the underdog: regardless of the spread, just the big underdog and if so, how does one define “big?”

Using a Yahoo article as an independent source to help us isolate which games quality as rivalries and using the most common assertion of “double-digit underdogs in rivalries,” we put it to test. 

Fact is there is no edge. Here is how double-digit underdogs have performed in the biggest rivalry games.

Game (+10) or more dog
LSU-Arkansas 4-2
Florida-FSU 0-5
Arizona-ASU 4-2
So Carolina-Clemson 1-0
Washington-Wash St. 4-1
Ole Miss-Miss St. 1-3
VA-Virginia Tech 1-4
Notre Dame-USC 3-4
Alabama-Auburn 4-2
UGA-GA Tech 2-1
Oregon-Oregon St. 2-4
Army-Navy 2-4
Oklahoma-OSU 5-4
Ohio St.-Michigan 2-4
Oklahoma-Texas 2-2
Miami-Florida St. 4-3
Utah-BYU 2-1

Simply put, if anything there is a slight edge to going with the favorite. The only sharp I know who buys into this non-angle does have a better subsystem. He prefers underdogs of 10-20, correctly stating that in complete mismatches the angle would not apply sports betting podcast listeners should be aware.

This is true that there is a slight edge in big underdogs in games that are not expected to be total blowouts, but the large point spreads generally result in routs larger than the oddsmakers expect.

Among our Golden Rules of Betting is that “conventional logic” is sports betting’s ultimate oxymoron. Above is the latest example.

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About the Author

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy got his start in the sports handicapping industry with the Dial Sports (Communications Team) audiotext network. It was owned by sportswriter, broadcaster and handicapping pioneer Mickey Charles. Dial Sports was the sister company of the popular Sports Network Wire Service. Upon graduating California University of PA, where he was a play-by-play announcer on student radio station WVCS (now WCAL) and cable channel 29 (now CUTV), he became a full-time sports announcer and handicapper for the Sportsline scorephone network. He learned from NFL legends coach Hank Stram and broadcasting icon Ray Scott the ins and outs of the sports betting world. His Amazing Cadillac Club became the most successful 900-number in sports betting history. He left to become the first General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network broadcast all over North America. His articles have appeared on several dozen websites and hard copy publications. He is now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world. Email: contact@joeduffy.net

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