2012 MLB Betting – MLB Weekend Picks For The 2012 World Series

Game 4: San Francisco Giants @ Detroit Tigers – Sunday, October 28

If this were an online casino game, you would not see much of a difference. The winner of this game is very hard to predict – it really is almost like betting on which river card will come up at a given moment in time.

Various betting websites would have plenty of reasons to pick either team in Game 4 of this series. The Giants and manager Bruce Bochy have surprised a number of baseball pundits by opting to pitch Ryan Vogelsong twice in this series while having staff ace Matt Cain go only once. The consequences of that decision are clear: Vogelsong got the nod in Game 3 of this series, which puts him in position to start again if this series reaches a Game 7. Cain was expected by many baseball observers to be the guy for the Giants in Games 3 and 7, but Bochy threw a curveball by putting Vogelsong in those two games and moving Cain to Game 4 for his only starting outing in this battle with the Detroit Tigers.

When making a bet on sports, you need to realize how a decision such as the one made by Bochy can affect the larger calculus. Cain, as a result of being moved to Game 4, knows that this will be his only start in the series, and therefore his last start of 2012 as San Francisco’s ace. If the series goes seven games, Cain might have a relief role, but this is the last time this season in which he will take the mound at the beginning of a game.

Cain labored in the National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals. He was ultimately effective, but he did not have lethal bite or movement on most of his pitches. Getting an extra day of rest before Game 4 (instead of throwing on normal rest in Game 3) could make Cain fresher. The awareness that this is his last start could improve Cain’s focus and concentration. It could very well be that starting in Game 4, not Game 3, will increase the likelihood that Cain will pitch well against the Tigers.

However, there’s another way to look at this situation. When you examine various betonline.com reviews, you also have to look at the opposition. Detroit starter Max Scherzer is in many ways like Cain. He has lost some velocity on his pitches in recent weeks. He has gotten a little more tired and has been nursed a little bit by his own manager, Jim Leyland. Some baseball experts might have thought before this series began that Leyland would make Scherzer the Game 3 and Game 7 starter instead of putting him in the Game 4 slot, but Leyland is clearly thinking along the same lines as Bochy did with Matt Cain. The things that apply to Cain also apply to Scherzer, making this a pitching matchup of relative equals. All in all, when a pitching confrontation is this even, go with the home team. Pick the Tigers to beat the Giants in a close one.

Read more on the latest sportsbook odds for Major League Baseball in 2012.

MLB Betting Pick: Detroit


About the Author

Jess Kelm is a Canadian sports betting expert and part of the famed Canadian Crew betting syndicate. Email contact@joeduffy.net

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