Top Football Betting System is Public: Performance Gap Analysis

It is literally the DNA of football handicapping and as basic as it is actionable intelligence.

Football bettors are employing a popular and scholarly business and economics tool, Performance Gap Analysis and applying it to sports betting in exploiting oddsmaker errors. 

Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, sports bettors developed how to properly weight key betting numbers as lead or lag indicators.

It’s based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.

Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and are more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.

The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter. Any dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside, overvalued and undervalued teams.

However this latest rage substantiates and compliments time tested techniques, it does not supersede them.

But much like DNA in the courtroom, it will occasionally refute the preponderance of evidence and has cancelled a small percentage of bets.

Gamblers been quietly availing ourselves to this prototype, but more so in hypothesis test mode.

However, only a small percentage of bets will be affected. In some cases, plays will be upgraded, others slightly downgraded, while a small minority cancelled. But as any bettor knows, there is no such thing as “small edge” once shown empirical just as there is no silver bullet to handicapping nirvana.

By upgrading and downgrading, it does not mean simply changing a Major to Wise Guy or visa versa. This is using the GodsTips scale. Using the Kelly criterion insert upgrading two or three-percent to four-percent of bankroll bets or visa versa.

Sports betting podcasts tell us that when weighing their preponderance of evidence, certain potential picks are often “on the bubble” so further validation will upgrade so-called “strong leans” to premium picks.

In short the formula would be a team with a good yards per rush, yards per pass (or passing yards per completion) but a bad yards per point and turnover ratio has a large upside.

Teams with bad yards per rush and pass but good yards per point and turnover ratios have a bigger downside.

Among the procedures Performance Gap fortifies:

Situational: letdown, look ahead, and “sandwich” games; revenge, motivational, intangibles, etc.

Matchups of strengths and weaknesses: using some of the top experts including subscribing to real “scout services” such as Scouts Inc. This is of course very much taking into consideration injuries.

Computer systems: most importantly knowing that to be statistically significant, the system must have a z-rating of 4.5 or better or at least 80 units on the plus side based on one-unit per bet.

Contrarian info: Betting with the sharp and against the square bettor, information that is now widely available.

Realizing the top expert is not the only expert: The famed competitor consensus plays. If they have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources that GodsTips respects has a big pick on a certain side, they pass along as a competitor consensus.

Outlaw lines: The official outlaw line is what the point spread would be without any adjustments to public perception. GodsTips exploits the dichotomy.

Comparing splits: home/road variances are contrasted with overall numbers. Most importantly, knowledge of how to utilize the data and many squares abuse it.

Corroboration is the key to successful betting as outlined in the sports handicapping eBook. Performance Gap Analysis is possibly the best tool for measuring the reliability of data yet.

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About the Author

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy got his start in the sports handicapping industry with the Dial Sports (Communications Team) audiotext network. It was owned by sportswriter, broadcaster and handicapping pioneer Mickey Charles. Dial Sports was the sister company of the popular Sports Network Wire Service. Upon graduating California University of PA, where he was a play-by-play announcer on student radio station WVCS (now WCAL) and cable channel 29 (now CUTV), he became a full-time sports announcer and handicapper for the Sportsline scorephone network. He learned from NFL legends coach Hank Stram and broadcasting icon Ray Scott the ins and outs of the sports betting world. His Amazing Cadillac Club became the most successful 900-number in sports betting history. He left to become the first General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network broadcast all over North America. His articles have appeared on several dozen websites and hard copy publications. He is now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world. Email: contact@joeduffy.net

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