NFL Free Picks From Top 3 Football Services of 2012

Top NFL handicapping experts are checking in with free picks as the week 4 NFL morning line is posted. We start out with a free NFL pick from the top service in NFL betting history, GodsTips.

SEATTLE -3 St. Louis

Seattle’s defense matches up perfectly. The St. Louis Rams promoted a run-first mentality when Jeff Fisher arrived as head coach. Fisher’s current team (Rams) and former team (Titans) are the only ones without a rushing TD through three games.

The Rams have scored all four of their offensive TDs through the air. They now face a Seattle defense allowing 2.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs. That includes a 0.4-yard average in the red zone, where running backs average 2.6 yards per rush across the NFL. Opposing backs have eight rushes for three yards and two TDs in the red zone against Seattle.

Since 2007, the Rams are 4-26 SU (.133) against NFC West opponents.

Absurdly good Stevie Vincent has a free NFL premium pick as well. 

LEVEL 4 PLAY is on Minnesota/Detroit OVER

Forensic ATS information on this game: Detroit over 10-0 off a road loss, over 14-3 after playing their last game on the road, over 21-6 after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, over 23-6 to teams with a winning record Minnesota over 45-25 in road games versus division opponents

Now to the wunderkinds of the Canadian Crew. New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Odds: New England -3.5, 50 over/under

If you know anyone who correctly predicted that the Patriots would be 1-2 while facing a 2-1 Buffalo Bills this week, just get your picks from them. It’s one of the least probable storylines in this highly unusual NFL season, but here we are.

After dropping their season opener to the Jets, the Bills have put up impressive wins against Cleveland and Kansas City. (Of course there’s nothing impressive about knocking off the 0-4 Browns.)

With the Patriots in town, Buffalo is facing its biggest test yet, but they’re not likely to be intimidated. Remember that the Bills won their last regular season meeting with the Pats and New England is especially vulnerable this year.

We like the way Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (50-86, 581 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INT) has been developing a balanced offensive approach. Buffalo is adept with both the run (178 yds/game) and passing (193 yds/game). Those kinds of options are nice to have and should keep the struggling Pats defense on their toes.

For the Patriots, this is a must-win game. Tom Brady and his lineup of well disciplined teammates are struggling in a way that’s highly unusual for the golden franchise. In their last two games (both losses) they’ve been unable to dominate and seemed sloppy on every front.

In order to really get back in the game, the Patriots are going to need their defense to wake up and play a lot better. Against Baltimore they gave up a 9-point, late game lead that cost them the game. They also let the Ravens put up over 500 yards last week and could not make big plays when it really mattered. That’s not to let the offensive line off the hook, they allowed Brady to get sacked twice, which is a huge number by his standards.

We’re thinking that New England is one of those teams that’s going to benefit from having the real referees back in the game and that will help the flow of their game considerably. The Bills should give them a good game, but the Pats seem ready to turn things around.

New England has a very good shot at covering those 3.5 points.

The Pick: New England -3.5

The big story is from the famed Key Play of the Day. Thank you to all who jumped on the great monthly sale for the POD yesterday. While past results sold you on the winning, it is the future results that will continue to validate your trust. The Tennessee Volunteers made it five straight winners with four MLB dogs of 184, 145, 122, and 275.

Going back years, the POD is on a 22-8 NFL tear. Get another NFL side up now. Get the picks now

The week 4 NFL morning line is posted.

205 New England Patriots -4 +100 -190 Over 48.5 -105
206 Buffalo Bills +4 -108 +171 Under 48.5 -105
         
207 Minnesota Vikings +4.5 -106 +193 Over 48.5 -110
208 Detroit Lions -4.5 -102 -215 Under 48.5 +100
         
209 Carolina Panthers +7 -110 +269 Over 48.5 +100
210 Atlanta Falcons -7 +102 -305 Under 48.5 -110
         
211 San Francisco 49ers -4 -101 -200 Over 41 -105
212 New York Jets +4 -107 +180 Under 41 -105
         
213 San Diego Chargers -1 -116 -123 Over 44.5 +102
214 Kansas City Chiefs +1 +107 +111 Under 44.5 -113
         
215 Tennessee Titans +11.5 -107 +439 Over 44.5 +100
216 Houston Texans -11.5 -101 -520 Under 44.5 -110
         
217 Seattle Seahawks -3 +104 -145 Over 38.5 -110
218 St. Louis Rams +3 -113 +131 Under 38.5 +100
         
219 Miami Dolphins +4.5 -104 +197 Over 40.5 -102
220 Arizona Cardinals -4.5 -104 -220 Under 40.5 -108
         
221 Oakland Raiders +7 -110 +256 Over 48.5 -103
222 Denver Broncos -7 +102 -290 Under 48.5 -107
         
223 Cincinnati Bengals -1 -105 -111 Over 44.5 -105
224 Jacksonville Jaguars +1 -103 +101 Under 44.5 -105
         
225 New Orleans Saints +9 -129 +293 Over 53 -110
226 Green Bay Packers -9 +119 -335 Under 53 +100
         
227 Washington Redskins +1 +106 +111 Over 46.5 -104
228 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 -115 -123 Under 46.5 -106
         
229 New York Giants +1 +117 +122 Over 47 -105
230 Philadelphia Eagles -1 -127 -135 Under 47 -105

 

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About the Author

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy got his start in the sports handicapping industry with the Dial Sports (Communications Team) audiotext network. It was owned by sportswriter, broadcaster and handicapping pioneer Mickey Charles. Dial Sports was the sister company of the popular Sports Network Wire Service. Upon graduating California University of PA, where he was a play-by-play announcer on student radio station WVCS (now WCAL) and cable channel 29 (now CUTV), he became a full-time sports announcer and handicapper for the Sportsline scorephone network. He learned from NFL legends coach Hank Stram and broadcasting icon Ray Scott the ins and outs of the sports betting world. His Amazing Cadillac Club became the most successful 900-number in sports betting history. He left to become the first General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network broadcast all over North America. His articles have appeared on several dozen websites and hard copy publications. He is now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world. Email: contact@joeduffy.net

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