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Master Betting Line Sports By Rolling With Changes Pro Gambler Says

Sports handicapping always has been and always will be a fluid science. The games we bet on amend. Technology improves the ability of the sharp player and the oddsmaker to handicap contests.

The market efficiencies adjust. The Department of Justice crackdowns on our right to gamble have reapportioned sharp intelligence back to Las Vegas and the local bookmaker.

From a betting point of view, here are some of the biggest adjustments the sharpest bettors have enacted.

Offensive and defensive efficiency statistics in basketball

KenPom.com for college basketball and John Hollinger in the NBA have brilliant power ratings, their accuracy skyrocketed by the utilization of the points per 100 possessions statistic.

As sports handicappers on radio broadcasts will say this counteracts the flaws of the points per game scored and allowed stat that much better measures pace, not competence. Best of all, we’ve gravy trained their individual player power ratings when appraising player injury intel.

Combined with our “eye test” acumen, such computations are infinitely superior to distorted +/- stats produced by Dr. Bob Stohl for example.

Deemphasizing running attacks in the NFL

Between the rule changes that favor passing games and simple physics—bigger, stronger, faster athletes mean more violent collisions, negatively affecting workhorse running backs the most—the single toughest strong suit to maintain in pro football from week-to-week is a quality running game.

This was counterintuitive for me to acknowledge because GodsTips was a forerunner in using ball-control effectiveness in yielding considerable profits. But clearly the game has altered and so must how we handicap it.

Look for the most disappointing teams out of the gate each year to be those that had the most prominent running games in the previous season.  That is until the parameters transform again and so shall we.

Back to basics in baseball

During the steroid era, such statistics as ground ball/fly ball ratio gained prominence. Professional gambling advice always said that fly ball pitchers who had quality ERAs almost always were flirting with disaster. On the other hand, hurlers who gave up a high percentage of ground balls or who struck out a significant percentage of batters were generally the most unwavering.

Now that the game we’ve known, loved, and won substantial cash with has returned to it’s norm, so has streamlining foretelling the outcome.

The most foretelling numbers in handicapping offense are on-base percentage and slugging percentage. With pitchers, it’s ERA and WHIP.  Keep it simple. That’s the allure of baseball gambling.

David Bowie is not the only one making changes

We have isolated several other inclinations that are in the early stages and we are weighing accordingly. The key is to always stay on the cutting edge and be at the forefront of the betting market trends. We will. It’s what we do better than anyone else.

For more information: Free sports picks, the most informative sports betting podcasts, and the top sports handicappers are on the OffshoreInsiders.com Network.

 

 

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About the Author

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy got his start in the sports handicapping industry with the Dial Sports (Communications Team) audiotext network. It was owned by sportswriter, broadcaster and handicapping pioneer Mickey Charles. Dial Sports was the sister company of the popular Sports Network Wire Service. Upon graduating California University of PA, where he was a play-by-play announcer on student radio station WVCS (now WCAL) and cable channel 29 (now CUTV), he became a full-time sports announcer and handicapper for the Sportsline scorephone network. He learned from NFL legends coach Hank Stram and broadcasting icon Ray Scott the ins and outs of the sports betting world. His Amazing Cadillac Club became the most successful 900-number in sports betting history. He left to become the first General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network broadcast all over North America. His articles have appeared on several dozen websites and hard copy publications. He is now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world. Email: contact@joeduffy.net

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