OffshoreInsiders.com says it’s been one of the best starts to an NBA season for sharp players and a not-so-great season for the squares. The reason is simple: the dynamics expected to come out of the condensed NBA season have proven to be even more accurate than expected.
Most of the Golden Rules of Sports Handicapping have been more frequent this season. Jumping to the top of that list includes:
Totals handicapping is much more about pace in basketball (and football) than offensive or defensive efficiency
I’ve seen many articles from would-be experts pointing out that NBA shooting percentages are down. This is true. What the aspiring experts are oblivious to is that it is much more a result of slowed pace than the “tired legs” they assume.
When a team plays a frenetic pace such as what Mike D’Antonio prefers, they will not only get a lot of easy baskets, but also give up many. A more disciplined and efficient approach, like that preferred by Greg Popovich, means fewer easy baskets on both ends of the court.
Teams are rationing their energy more so than being tired. What is the handicapping significance and difference between the two? Teams have had more of a tendency to limit fast breaks at the front end of a cluster of games even more than at the tail end.
Uncertainty is higher, which is great for the sharp player
OffshoreInsiders.com says the window in which a handicapper can place his bets is much larger than the period in which the oddsmaker has to post lines. With teams playing more back-to-back nights, sometimes three straight nights, there is more uncertainty for the oddsmakers, who are in too much of a hurry to post lines to get the competitive edge.
As a pro handicapper, this means even more opportunity than ever, preying on what linesmakers overlook while harnessing enlightenment that comes out after a line is posted. Nagging injuries are a gift to the pro gambler more than ever.
Another of our Golden Rules is that no edge is too small. They all add up. Knowing which key players will be at less than 100 percent is a gift horse that has been much more commonplace this season.
When there were two and three days between games, that levels the playing field more for the oddsmaker. Less intel sneaks under the radar. In the truncated schedule, the upper hand swings to the sharp even more than ever.
Just like in other forms of investment, being ahead of the curve, not behind it is the key to beating the markets. The unique dynamics of the concentrated schedule is an endowment to the proactive unlike to which NBA bettors have previously been benefactors of.